Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
