🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still